Are markets driven by fear or greed?
The sentiment page shows how fearful or greedy investors are: with our own fear and greed index built from six market signals, plus put/call ratios, positioning in the futures market, financial stress and liquidity. Every indicator is ranked against its own history.
Free during the beta, no ads and no subscription. Once you sign in, this page opens the tool.
How it works
Sentiment can't be measured directly, but it shows up in prices: when stocks trade far above their average, investors prefer high-yield bonds over safe Treasuries and protection is cheap, greed tends to prevail. When prices fall, volatility (the expected size of price swings) jumps and investors flee to safe havens, fear takes over.
The Portfolio Lab fear and greed index computes six such building blocks every trading day and compares each with its own values over the past two years. This percentile rank gives the points: 80 means the value was higher than on 80% of days. The index is the average of the points; 0 means extreme fear, 100 extreme greed. The method is our own and openly documented.
How to read it: sentiment is a snapshot, not a buy signal. The table “What came next” shows how the stock market fared after periods of high fear or high greed. That describes the past; it is not a forecast.
What a result looks like
Sample dataMade-up sample data, no real prices and no recommendation. Calculated with the same methods as the tool itself.
Inputs in this example
Locked: you can't change the inputs in the preview.
Run your own numbers with a free account Your own inputs, real data and every setting.
Create accountFear and greed index
Own index from six components, each as its percentile rank over the last two years; the index is their average. 0 = extreme fear, 100 = extreme greed.
| Building block | Raw value | Points | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum Stock index versus its average over the last 125 trading days. Far above: greed. | +4.5% | 46 | neutral |
| Market breadth Equal-weighted versus cap-weighted stock index over 60 trading days. When many stocks rise together, the mood is broad-based. | -0.4% | 67 | Greed |
| Volatility Volatility index versus its average over the last 50 days, counted in reverse: low volatility means greed, a jump upward means fear. | +14.3% | 68 | Greed |
| VIX curve 3-month volatility versus 30-day volatility. Upward-sloping curve: calm and greed; downward-sloping curve: short-term fear. | +12.0% | 80 | extreme greed |
| Safe havens Return of stocks minus intermediate Treasuries over 20 trading days. When investors flee into bonds: fear. | +0.7% | 49 | neutral |
| High-yield bonds Return of high-yield bonds minus Treasuries over 20 trading days. Demand for risk in the credit market: greed. | +1.0% | 64 | Greed |
Raw value: distance from the average or return difference. Points: percentile rank of the raw value among the values of the past two years, using only data up to that day.
History
Weekly since 13 Mar 2017; dotted lines mark the thresholds for fear (25) and greed (75).
What came next
Average return of the Sample equity index in the months after each trading day, grouped by the level of the index.
| Index value | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20 | +2.2% 67% positive · n 115 | +3.9% 71% positive · n 115 | +11.7% 77% positive · n 114 |
| 20–40 | +0.4% 51% positive · n 625 | +1.4% 59% positive · n 625 | +6.6% 73% positive · n 587 |
| 40–60 | +0.6% 55% positive · n 864 | +1.6% 62% positive · n 858 | +4.5% 71% positive · n 803 |
| 60–80 As of 31 Dec 2025 | +0.5% 53% positive · n 581 | +1.5% 61% positive · n 547 | +1.7% 63% positive · n 472 |
| 80–100 | -1.3% 28% positive · n 92 | +0.8% 59% positive · n 90 | +4.2% 51% positive · n 70 |
| all days | +0.5% 53% positive · n 2,277 | +1.6% 62% positive · n 2,235 | +4.9% 69% positive · n 2,046 |
Returns of the Sample equity index from each trading day, 2,298 observations from 13 Mar 2017 to 31 Dec 2025. The periods overlap: only about 109 / 36 / 9 periods of 1, 3 and 12 months are independent. Descriptive, not a forecast.
Assumptions: All series are made up and tied to a made-up stress factor: when it rises, stocks fall, volatility jumps and investors flee into Treasuries. The index starts once at least 4 building blocks have one year of history; returns exclude dividends and costs.
Frequently asked questions
What is a fear and greed index?
A score from 0 to 100 that combines several market signals about sentiment. Low values signal fear (falling prices, high volatility, flight into bonds), high values greed (prices far above their average, appetite for risk).
What goes into the Portfolio Lab index?
Six building blocks: stock market momentum, market breadth (equal-weighted versus cap-weighted), volatility, the volatility curve (short versus longer term), safe havens (stocks versus Treasuries) and high-yield bonds versus Treasuries. Each block counts as its percentile rank over the past two years.
Can I time the market with the index?
Not reliably. After periods of high fear, returns over the following months were often above average, but the periods overlap and there are only a few independent observations. The page shows this openly in the table “What came next”.
Which indicators are there besides the index?
Put/call ratios from option chains, the weekly positioning of speculators in the futures market (COT reports), stress indexes, the real yield, inflation expectations, central bank liquidity and ratios such as copper to gold, each with percentile rank and z-score.
Where does the data come from?
With an account, from public sources: prices, volatility indexes, reports of the US futures market regulator and central bank time series. The examples on this page use entirely made-up data.
Learn more in the knowledge base
- MethodologySentiment: methodology for the fear and greed index, put/call ratio and COT
- ArticleMarket timing: can you pick the right moment?
- ArticleVIX: how to read the stock market's fear gauge
- ArticleVolatility: how much a portfolio fluctuates
- ArticleThe efficient market hypothesis: why it is so hard to beat the market
Run it with your own portfolios
Create an account, confirm your email and use this tool with real prices and your own ETFs.
- Price
- Free during the beta
- Data
- Prices, interest rates, inflation and factors from public sources
- Privacy
- Servers in the EU, no ads, statistics without cookies
- Devices
- Computer and phone, everything saved in your account