What does the economy mean for your portfolio?
The macro dashboard shows growth, inflation, interest rates and the labor market as long time series and marks recessions. The regime analysis works out how your portfolios did in recessions, inflation phases and rate cycles.
Free during the beta, no ads and no subscription. Once you sign in, this page opens the tool.
How it works
With an account the dashboard loads the official time series for the US, the euro area and Germany: GDP, industrial production, inflation and core inflation, the policy rate, the money market rate and the 10-year yield, unemployment and sentiment. Tiles show the latest value and the change from a year earlier; recessions are shaded gray.
From these series Portfolio Lab derives regimes: recession (two quarters of falling GDP), business cycle clock (sentiment above or below average, rising or falling), inflation bands, rate phases and the shape of the yield curve. An inverted yield curve, with short rates above long rates, is often seen as a sign of a coming recession.
The regime analysis maps your portfolios' monthly returns onto these phases and computes return, volatility and the worst month for each regime. You see whether your portfolio mainly earns in good times and how much it suffers in a downturn. The regimes are determined after the fact, so they describe the past and are not a signal.
What a result looks like
Sample dataMade-up sample data, no real prices and no recommendation. Calculated with the same methods as the tool itself.
Inputs in this example
Locked: you can't change the inputs in the preview.
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Create accountSample data as of 12/2025. Change from a year earlier: Inflation +0.1, Core inflation (excl. energy and food) +0.2, Policy rate -0.25, Government bonds 10y -0.40, Yield curve: 10y minus money market -0.11, Unemployment rate -0.2, Real GDP y/y +0.2, Economic sentiment -1.7.
Situation at the end of the sample data
Regimes from the last values of the made-up series (12/2025); not the current situation.
| Regime | State | since | Months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recession | no recession | 07/2020 | 66 |
| Business cycle clock | Recovery | 12/2025 | 1 |
| Inflation | 0–2% | 09/2025 | 4 |
| Rate phases | sideways | 07/2025 | 6 |
| Yield curve | normal | 02/2024 | 23 |
| Growth and inflation | Goldilocks | 12/2025 | 1 |
Inflation y/y (%)
Sample country, gray: recessions.
Policy rate, money market and 10-year yield (%)
Sample country, gray: recessions.
Return p.a. by regime
Monthly portfolio returns from 01/2006 to 12/2025; geometric mean of the months in the regime, annualized.
| Regime | Portfolio | Months | Return p.a. | Volatility p.a. | Worst month |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Recession | Global equities | 15 | -18.0% | 7.6% | -6.2% |
| Recession | 60/40 | 15 | -8.2% | 5.0% | -3.7% |
| Recession | Diversified | 15 | -8.7% | 5.2% | -4.1% |
| no recession | Global equities | 225 | 9.0% | 14.5% | -10.5% |
| no recession | 60/40 | 225 | 6.9% | 8.7% | -5.9% |
| no recession | Diversified | 225 | 7.1% | 9.7% | -7.2% |
Few months in: Recession. Read the results there with caution.
Assumptions: “Sample country” is entirely made up: growth, inflation, rates, the labor market and sentiment follow an invented business cycle with two recessions, the policy rate a simple rate rule. Technical recession (two quarters of falling GDP), regimes determined after the fact, no delay. Portfolios built from the made-up building blocks, rebalanced monthly.
Frequently asked questions
What is a technical recession?
When real GDP shrinks for two quarters in a row. For the US, Portfolio Lab instead uses the official dating by business cycle researchers, which also looks at jobs and incomes.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
The 10-year government bond yield is below the money market rate. This happens when investors expect falling rates, often because the economy is cooling. In the past an inverted curve came before many recessions, but not all of them.
What does the regime analysis show?
How your portfolios did in different phases, e.g. in recessions compared with all other months. The return p.a. is the geometric mean of the months in the regime, annualized.
Can I trade on the regimes?
Only with care. Recessions are often confirmed months later, and data get revised afterwards. In the tool you can set a delay so that only what had already been published at the time counts.
Learn more in the knowledge base
- MethodologyMacro dashboard and regime analysis: methodology
- ArticleYield curve: what the term structure reveals and why an inverted curve is seen as a warning sign
- ArticleRegime models: hidden Markov, Markov switching and more
- ArticleReal return: what is left after inflation
- ArticleStock-bond correlation: regimes, drivers and what it means for 60/40, risk parity and hedging
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