Where does the market stand?

The US, the euro area and Germany at a glance, with recessions and how portfolios fared in each regime.

CAPE of the S&P 500 since 1881, percentile and the historical relationship with returns over the following ten years.

VIX curve, VIX futures, VVIX, SKEW and volatility premium, each with its percentile rank.

Own fear and greed index, put/call ratios, COT positioning, financial stress and liquidity.

Black-Scholes, Black 76 and binomial trees, from American to lookback, with strategies.

Bubble confidence following Sornette across 26 window lengths. A research tool, not a forecast.

Hidden Markov model for indices, bonds, commodities and crypto. A look back, not a signal.

Tankers and cargo ships at twelve chokepoints and major ports: positions, counts, transits.